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[동향 / AI] 우리의 직업을 얼마나 컴퓨터에 내줄 것인가? THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERISATION?
- 조영욱
- 등록일 : 2016.07.07
- 조회수 : 1646
[2013년 영국 옥스포드대 보고서]
THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW
SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO
COMPUTERISATION?
Carl Benedikt Frey, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
Michael A. Osborne, Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford
Abstract
We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To assess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations,
using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine expected impacts of future computerisation on us labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment. According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total us employment is at risk. We further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment
exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation’s probability of computerisation.
* 자세한 내용은 첨부파일을 참고하시기 바랍니다.
- 사라질 직업 확률 리스트: p.61~p.77
- 미국에 있는 702개의 직업을 조사한 결과 인공지능의 발달로 20년 내에 조사 대상의 절반에 가까운 47%의 직업이 사라질 것이라고 전망
- 사라질 확률: 텔레마케터(99%), 요리사(96%), 회계사(94%), 택시기사(89%), 부동산중개업자(86%), 개인 자산운용사(58%), 판사(40%), 초등교사(0.4%), 사회복지사(0.3%), 레크레이션치료사(0.2%)